Falfurrias
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 95
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
64%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/08/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |