11
Mongolian Apple
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 89
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#14
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 30/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 31/01/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/05/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |