2
Take Me To Church
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 93
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 28/03/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 19/05/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 10/09/2025 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 25/09/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |