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The Last Scip
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 96
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength27%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 25/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 01/11/2025 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 9% | -0.51 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |