3
Ariana Valentina
7yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 87
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength6%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/02/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |