9
Keepthedreamalive
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-30 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-04-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2024 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 27/12/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 13/02/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 10/04/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 20/06/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |