4
Sylfrena
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |