10
Congrats On Fifty
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 89
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |
| 25/05/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 10/07/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 21/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |