Ducale
8yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Lone Star | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-04-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-09-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 20/07/2024 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 01/09/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 29/09/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 06/04/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/04/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 56% | -0.33 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |