1
Blue Coast
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Keeneland | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2025-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 09/05/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/10/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 5/4 | 93% | 14% | -0.79 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 06/06/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |