7
Comes A Time
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 86
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 10/09/2025 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 18% | -0.61 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |