3
Fast Solution
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 99
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-12-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/12/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/02/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |