4
Ice Minister
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 77
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |