Machine Gun Man
6yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-04-26 | Lone Star | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 25/01/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/02/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/04/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 15/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |