5
Redhill
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 66
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength36%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/03/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |