Saltwater Cowboy
5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 91
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Lone Star | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-04-26 | Lone Star | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-03-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 21/01/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 17/02/2025 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 17/03/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/05/2025 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |