Joe's Candy
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 72
Ellis Park · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
63%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-02 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2023 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 29% | -0.61 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |