Mr. J
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 58
Ellis Park · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 20/08/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 20/02/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |