Big City
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 96
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 25/01/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/02/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |