Eli's Promise
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 98
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-16 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 10/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 31/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 20% | -0.75 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |