Invulnerable
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 94
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 23/02/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |