5
Magic Grant
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 93
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |