Mister Banderas
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 90
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-03-09 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 17/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 60% | -0.38 |
| 09/03/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 21/03/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |