7
Nabokov
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 23/11/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/01/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |