Scat Free
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 94
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Remington Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 01/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 23/05/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 15/08/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |