6
Shan
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 93
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Fair Grounds | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/09/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 15/01/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/02/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |