1
Tagliatelle
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 99
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/03/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 01/05/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 06/06/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |