7
Baytown Da Vinci
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 61
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 18/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |