5
Lost In The Fight
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 52
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 05/07/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |