3
Alta Avenue
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 92
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |