6
French Friction
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 90
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength83%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 4th | +5 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2026-02-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 01/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |