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Just A Minute
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 91
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 09/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |