7
La Puma
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 92
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 07/10/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |