5
Pulstar
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/07/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 08/01/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 22% | -0.62 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |