4
Storm Cloud Rising
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 08/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/03/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |