1
Archie The Giza
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 99
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 08/08/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 30/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |