6
Awesome Ruta
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 100
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/9
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Remington Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |