4
Extensive
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 107
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2025-04-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 25/01/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 16/03/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |