First Resort
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 104
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | -5th | +5 |
| 2024-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2024-08-10 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2024-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/08/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 14/09/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 30/11/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |