9
King Russell
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 102
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Remington Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/05/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 14/06/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/11/2025 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |