Master Controller
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 94
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Ellis Park | BHA94 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-07-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2024-11-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 17/10/2024 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 03/11/2024 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/05/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 05/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |