7
Special Session
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 98
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2025-08-30 | Woodbine | BHA96 | 9th | 14th | −4 |
| 2025-07-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 82% | -0.13 |
| 15/11/2024 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 90% | -0.04 |
| 08/04/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 16/05/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 13/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |