Surly Furious
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-07-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 08/04/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/05/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/12/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |