12
Amazing Lady
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 77
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-18 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-11-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/12/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |