Annelle
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 93
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 08/03/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 12/04/2025 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/05/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 04/07/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 31/08/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |