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3

Derry Girl

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 82

Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 02/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m1f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/03/2025 · OR 85 par2/03C6OR 85C6 @ Turfway Park 22/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/03/2025 · OR 84 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m110y Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2025 · OR 85 par22/05C6OR 85C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2025 · OR 86 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 86 · 1m110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/07/2025 · OR 86 par14/07C5OR 86C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/08/2025 · OR 92 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 94 · 1m Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 94 par23/09C5OR 94C8 @ Churchill Downs 30/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 93 · 1m1f 118 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 93 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 80 par21/06C8OR 80projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-21Churchill Downs?3rd4th−1
2025-10-30Churchill Downs?5th6th−1
2025-09-23Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd0th+2
2025-08-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th4th+2
2025-07-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd0th+2
2025-06-18Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0318/0623/0921/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength23%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20257th33/10%45%+0.45
22/03/20256th8/158%55%-0.03
22/05/20253rd5/174%60%-0.14
18/06/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
14/07/20252nd25/10%88%+0.88
06/08/20256th11/271%44%-0.27
23/09/20252nd7/282%80%-0.02
30/10/20255th9/276%33%-0.43
21/06/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62