Evelyn Louise
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 82
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 17/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 16/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 12/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |