Neenah
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 86
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
53%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 14/06/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 17/07/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |