10
Our Shenanigan
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 81
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 30/11/2024 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 19/01/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |