Plot
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 84
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |